The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) has released updated estimates of the Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander population
ABS estimates of the Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander population are used as the denominator for many measures used in national reporting, including several Closing the Gap (CtG) targets and supporting indicators.
Every five years, following each Census, the ABS recalculates the estimated resident population (ERP) of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people, along with an updated time series population trend for previous periods (‘backcast’ estimates using life tables, derived by the ABS based on the best available demographic information) and for forward periods (‘projections’ based on forward assumptions on births, deaths and migration). For more details see: Estimates and Projections, Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Australians methodology, 2011 to 2031 (abs.gov.au).
The ABS released Estimates and projections, Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Australians, 2011 to 2031 based on the 2021 Census on 24 July 2024. The release included detailed backcast population estimates from 2011 to 2020 and projections to 2031. The ABS considers the 2021 Census-based Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander population estimate as the best estimate of the Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander population, as at 30 June 2021.
The Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander population estimates and projections are higher than the data that they replace
The published 2021 Census-based estimates and projections showed an increase in the estimated Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander population, compared with previous estimates (figure 1) (other than for the Northern Territory). The change in the population estimates reflects the increase in the count of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people in the Census. Nationally, between the 2016 and 2021 Census, the count of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people increased 25.2%. Less than half (43.5%) of this increase can be accounted for by demographic factors (births, deaths and migration) with the remainder due to other factors, including changes in the propensity of people to identify as an Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander person. The increase in the Census count that is explained by demographic factors was lower than observed between the 2011 and 2016 Census (61.0%) and the 2006 and 2011 Census (61.3%) (see Understanding change in counts of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Australians: Census, 2021 (abs.gov.au)).
Figure 1 – Backcast and projected population estimates, Australia, Census 2016- and Census 2021-based
Source: ABS 2024 Estimates and Projections, Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Australians methodology, 2011 to 2031 (abs.gov.au)
| Year | 2016 Census-based (‘000) | 2021 Census-based (‘000) | Difference (‘000) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2011 | 720.1 | 806.1 | 86.0 (11.9% increase) |
| 2016 | 798.4 | 898.5 | 100.1 (12.5% increase) |
| 2021 | 879.0 | 983.7 | 104.7 (11.9% increase) |
For more information on the population data used on the Closing the Gap dashboard see: How to interpret the data: Where do Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander population and non-Indigenous population data come from?
Closing the Gap socio-economic target indicators, target end points and supporting indicators calculated as population rates are being updated
As at March 2025, there are five Closing the Gap socio-economic targets and seven supporting indicators on the dashboard that are calculated as population rates:
- Targets – CtG 3 (preschool), CtG 10 (imprisonment), CtG 11 (youth detention), CtG 12 (out ‑of ‑home care) and CtG 14 (suicide)
- Supporting Indicators – SE1b (cause of death), SE1e (access to health services), SE10a (charged by police), SE11c (young offenders in police proceedings), SE12m (child protection substantiations), SE13h (hospitalisations for family violence), and SE13p (homelessness services for family violence).
In the March 2025 dashboard update, the affected targets and supporting indicators (other than target 3)1 are being updated to incorporate the 2021 Census-based population estimates and projections, including:
- the full time series for Closing the Gap target indicators and supporting indicators, including the baseline year data
- the targets (the end points) (where applicable) and target trajectories
- assessments of progress (including regression analysis and confidence levels)
- target disaggregations
- commentary on how to interpret the data
- attachment tables and visual data (graphs)
- target/indicator data specifications.
These updates affect the data reported for the baseline year for the five targets. Consequently, the ‘end point’ for targets (where the target is to achieve a percentage change from the baseline year) have also needed to be updated for four targets: CtG 10 (imprisonment), CtG 11 (youth detention), CtG 12 (out‑of‑home care) and CtG 14 (suicide) (table 2).
| Target | 2016 Census-based rates (November 2024 dashboard update) | 2021 Census-based (March 2025 dashboard update) | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baseline | Target (end year) | Revised Baseline | Revised Target | |
| CtG10 (per 100,000) (reduce incarceration rate by 10%) | 2142.9 (2019) | 1821.5 (by 2031) | 1906.1 | 1620.2 (by 2031) |
| CtG11 (per 10,000) (reduce youth detention rate by 30%) | 32.1 (2018-19) | 22.3 (by 2031) | 28.3 | 19.8 (by 2031) |
| CtG12 (per 1,000) (reduce rate in out-of-home care by 45%) | 54.2 (2019) | 29.8 (by 2031) | 47.3 | 26.0 (by 2031) |
| CtG14 (per 100,000)b (reduce suicide rate towards zero) |
25.1 (2018) (5 juris total) |
6.3 (by 2031) (5 juris total) | 22.7 (5 juris total) 23.6 (6 juris total) | 5.6 (5 juris total) 5.9 (6 juris total) (75% reduction by 2031) |
a. There are no state and territory targets in the National Agreement. b. Victorian Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander suicide data is now available for national reporting – allowing for a 6 jurisdiction total suicide rate to be published by the ABS for the first time in the March 2025 dashboard update.
Source: Productivity Commission
As the updated population has increased over the entire time series, assessments of changes over time are not substantially affected. There have been no changes to the national assessments of progress (on track/not on track) as a result of the updated populations.
Why are ABS estimates of the Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander population higher than previously reported?
The number of people that are identified as an Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander person in the Census has increased over time.
The propensity to identify is a consideration when interpreting the data for Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people. A person may choose to identify as an Aboriginal and/or Torres Strait Islander person at different periods over time in the Census. This is influenced by a range of historical, cultural, political, sociological and administrative factors. How Census information is collected, who completes the form (or other data collection instrument), the perception of why the information is required and how it will be used, and cultural aspects (including safety) are other factors to consider, as well as contemporary and historical reasons associated with reporting as an Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander person. The propensity to identify in Census data is personal and may change over time, across age cohorts, and/or between geographic locations.
For more information see the Closing the Gap How to interpret the data: Changes in the number of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people in data over time.
Caution should be used when interpreting Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander population rates over time
Many population rates on the dashboard are derived using the 2021 Census-based estimates and projections of the Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander population, combined with data from other survey and administrative datasets.
These rates should be used with caution and particular care needs to be taken when interpreting changes in population rates over time (see Guide to using historical estimates for comparative analysis and reporting (abs.gov.au)). This is due to the numerator and denominator for these rates being from different sources:
- Generally, the numerators for population rates are sourced from a point-in-time administrative collections. As discussed above, the likelihood of a person identifying (or being identified) as an Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander person in administrative data may change over time.
- The denominators for population rates are the ABS estimates and projections of the Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander population data. The ABS Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander population data assume a constant level of Indigenous identification over time (based on the 2021 Census) (see How to interpret the data: Where do Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander population and non-Indigenous population data come from?).
As a result, increasing rates may reflect increasing Indigenous identification within the administrative systems, rather than changes in the underlying utilisation/engagement by Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people.
In addition, population rates are likely to be less accurate, the further they are from the 2021 Census year base. If we assume that changes in the level of Indigenous identification in the Census reflects the level of Indigenous identification in the numerator data, then:
- for years prior to 2021, Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander population rates are likely to be underestimates of the ‘true rates’ among people that identify as Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people in those years
- for years after 2021, Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander population rates are likely to be overestimates of the ‘true rates’ among people that identify as Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people in those years.
From the March 2025 update, historical rates reported on this dashboard have been limited to either 2011 onwards or 2016 onwards, based on the advice of the statistical agencies.
Further research is required to understand the relationship between how people identify between data sets, over time, and how this may affect the accuracy and interpretation of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander population rates.
Footnote
- Data for target 3 (preschool enrolment rate) will be updated in the July 2025 dashboard update (not updated in March, due to data availability). Locate Footnote 1 above