Closing the Gap data: the proof in the pudding?

So is it good news or bad news? The reality is not that simple.

Some things are improving: five targets are now on track to be met by 2031. At current trajectories, we should expect the targets for healthy birthweight, preschool enrolment, employment and Indigenous rights over land and sea to be met by 2031. But that still means only five targets out of 19 are on track to be met by 2031.

Another five of the targets are improving but not on track to be met, one has not progressed at all, and four targets are actually going backwards. This means that government performance on reducing rates of removal of children from their families, adult imprisonment, children in detention and suicide is even worse than when we started measuring.

Other glaring tensions play out in the data. Most states and territories are improving against most of the outcome areas but not in the important outcome areas of child protection, youth justice and adult incarceration, where many states and territories are reversing their progress.

As we have said before, this coincides with some states knowingly contravening their commitments under the Agreement. Of course, the data never gives the full story. It certainly doesn’t capture the strength and determination of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander communities fighting for change. But it does give an indication of whether things are working.

It is still fair to say that four years in we should expect greater change. The data reinforces conclusions we published earlier in the year that governments have not lived up to their reform commitments under the National Agreement on Closing the Gap.

In February, we reported a wide gap between rhetoric and action. Governments don’t seem to have grasped the nature and magnitude of what they committed to.

Over and above committing to the targets, governments promised to make structural and cultural changes that embedded partnership and shared decision-making, built the community-controlled sector, and transformed their organisations and how they undertook data activities. Instead, most government actions and plans to implement the agreement relabelled business as usual or simply tweaked existing ways of working.

The message was clear: outcomes for Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people wouldn’t change unless government behaviour changed. We also saw some pockets where governments were sharing power with Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people and communities, sharing decision-making and enacting the reforms they promised under the Agreement.

In those places, outcomes were changing fast. We saw Aboriginal-led and designed family preservation programs where rates of children living safely with families meant few if any children were removed from their homes. Where Aboriginal-led birthing programs were in place, the results were so outstanding that the results were published in international medical journals.

These examples are living proof that efforts to improve outcomes succeed when Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people lead policy design and implementation.

It shows that if governments are curious and humble enough to re-examine the way they do business in line with the Agreement’s key reforms, the dial will move. That means bureaucrats have to loosen their grip on processes that allow outcomes to be designed only one way.

And in early July, every government in Australia signalled that they agreed with this.

In February, we outlined four key recommendations for governments to disrupt business as usual and live out those Priority Reforms. Governments have not agreed only to those recommendations but almost every action we proposed under them as well. We don’t yet know when they will materialise, but we do know the changes can’t wait.

Otherwise we will see our next release of data look just like this one. Some targets will continue to worsen while others may improve but not to the extent that is required. If the path forward is clear, then the status quo should not reappear.

Will that urgency be heeded before our data release this time next year? The proof will be in the pudding.